Two nations trying to end long World Cup absences meet under the lights in Dublin. The margins are tiny, the stakes are big, and the Aviva will be full. Ireland open their 2026 qualifying campaign against Hungary on 6 September (19:45 UK, 20:45 CEST) in a game that could shape the tone of the group from the very first whistle.
Bookmakers can barely split them. Ireland are given a 38.5% chance of victory, Hungary 36.4%, and the draw sits at 27%. That tells you what to expect: a tense, tactical night decided by details.
Match preview and context
There’s history here. The last time these sides met in World Cup qualifying with something real on the line was 1989, when Ireland shut the door in Budapest (0-0) and finished the job in Dublin (2-0) on the way to Italia ’90. More recently, a 2024 friendly went Ireland’s way, 2-1, which won’t decide anything today but does add a small mental edge.
Ireland’s recent record is a mixed bag. In the 2024/25 Nations League, they finished third in League B, then secured their status by seeing off Bulgaria 4-2 on aggregate in a relegation playoff. The June window brought two draws: 1-1 with Senegal and 0-0 against Luxembourg. Under Heimir Hallgrímsson, the team is still settling into a more direct, organized style. The goal is clear: be harder to beat, keep games close, and punish mistakes.
Hungary arrive with a familiar identity: compact, aggressive without the ball, and sharp in transition. Marco Rossi has built a side that embraces the scrap and loves big stages. They don’t always need a lot of the ball to control a game. When they click, they’re ruthless from set pieces and lethal on counters led by their stars.
Home advantage matters here. The Aviva gives Ireland an emotional lift, and in a fixture where the expected margin is a single goal—or none—that can count for a lot. But Hungary travel well and have made a habit of dragging games onto their terms. Both teams know what this opener is: a chance to lay down a marker in a group that won’t forgive slow starts.
Lineups, tactics and betting angles
Team news first. Ireland are without Troy Parrott, who has a medial knee ligament injury, and Robbie Brady is also sidelined. Ryan Manning is in line to start, which hints at how Ireland might structure the left side—either as an overlapping full-back in a back four or a wing-back in a back five.
Hallgrímsson has options in goal with Caoimhín Kelleher and Gavin Bazunu. At center-back, expect a physical pairing—think Nathan Collins with Dara O’Shea or Andrew Omobamidele—built to win first balls and protect the box. In midfield, Josh Cullen is the anchor, with energy and legs around him from players like Jayson Molumby and Jason Knight. Up top, Evan Ferguson gives Ireland a focal point. His duel with Hungary’s leader at the back, Willi Orbán, is the sort of battle that swings tight games. Chiedozie Ogbene adds pace and direct running from wide areas.
Hungary’s shape under Marco Rossi usually flexes between a back three and a back four. Either way, the themes are the same: solid spine, wing-backs (or full-backs) pushing on, and a punch from midfield. Dominik Szoboszlai is the star turn, gliding into half-spaces, carrying the ball at speed, and hitting from range. Roland Sallai is a constant threat on the break. In front of them, a physical No. 9—often Martin Ádám—makes life uncomfortable for center-backs. Behind, Orbán organizes, while Attila Szalai offers balance and left-footed distribution. Péter Gulácsi is the steady presence in goal.
Expected Ireland XI (projected): Kelleher; Doherty, Collins, O’Shea, Manning; Cullen, Molumby, Knight; Ogbene, Ferguson, another wide runner/10 depending on shape.
Expected Hungary XI (projected): Gulácsi; Fiola, Orbán, Szalai; Nego (or a traditional RB), Nagy, Schäfer, Kerkez; Szoboszlai, Sallai; Ádám.
Tactically, this could look like a game of chess for 20–30 minutes. Ireland will try to compress the middle and force Hungary wide, then break through Ogbene’s pace or quick combinations into Ferguson’s feet. Hungary will bait the press, then spring forward with Szoboszlai carrying and Sallai darting inside. Set pieces could be decisive—both teams have size and delivery.
Key battles to watch:
- Evan Ferguson vs Willi Orbán: A physical, aerial, and positional contest. Second balls are vital here.
- Josh Cullen vs Dominik Szoboszlai: Ireland’s screen against Hungary’s creator. Space between the lines decides this.
- Wide channels: Manning’s overlaps versus Hungary’s right flank, and Fiola/Nego charging the other way.
What the odds tell us: the market expects a tight, low-scoring affair that still has room for both teams to get on the board. The most likely correct score, per model probabilities, is 1-1 (12.2%). Next come 1-0 Ireland (9.7%), 0-1 Hungary (9.2%), 2-1 Ireland (8.2%), 1-2 Hungary (7.7%), and 0-0 (7.2%). The both teams to score probability sits at 50%—a clean coin flip.
Given Ireland’s slight edge and home support, the early lean is toward them avoiding defeat, but this looks more like a one-goal game than a blowout. Hungary are built to nick results away, and if Szoboszlai finds rhythm, momentum can flip in seconds.
Betting angles (keep it sensible):
- Both Teams To Score: Yes. At a modeled 50%, this is close to even money. With both sides carrying set-piece threats and live counterattacks, 1-1 sits right at the top of the probability tree.
- Draw or Ireland Draw No Bet: If you think the crowd pushes Ireland over the line but respect Hungary’s resilience, this is a pragmatic cover.
- Under 2.5 Goals: The pricing suggests a narrow contest. The range of likely scores (1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0) leans toward a low total.
How Ireland can win: win first contact at the back, protect the middle, and feed Ferguson early. They need runners close to him—Knight or Ogbene timing those surges—plus clean set-piece delivery. Keep Szoboszlai turning toward his own goal and slow Hungary’s transitions at source.
How Hungary can win: drag Ireland into long spells without the ball, then punish turnovers. Target the half-spaces behind Ireland’s full-backs, attack the near post with Sallai, and load the box on dead balls. If they score first, they’re very good at managing the clock.
Selection notes to watch pre-kickoff: who starts in goal for Ireland, Kelleher or Bazunu; whether Hallgrímsson opts for a back three to shield Szoboszlai’s zone; and if Rossi uses a more conservative wing-back setup away from home. Ryan Manning’s role also matters—his left foot can change the tempo and angle of Ireland’s attacks.
Form snapshots: Ireland’s recent draws suggest a team that competes but struggles to put sides away without a clinical edge. Hungary, under Rossi, are stubborn travelers who rarely get blown out. Put that together, and the draw becomes a live outcome, especially at halftime.
A realistic forecast? A one-goal game or a stalemate decided by a set piece or a moment from a star. If you’re hunting a scoreline, 1-1 is the smart, if unglamorous, pick based on the probabilities. If someone edges it, it may come down to Ferguson finding a yard in the box or Szoboszlai bending one from 20 yards.
Predicted result: Ireland 1-1 Hungary. Lean Ireland on draw-no-bet if you want a side. Otherwise, BTTS at around a 50% implied chance matches the model view.
One last thing: this is step one in a long race, but step one sticks. Win here and you set the tone. Drop points and you’re playing catch-up before the leaves turn. That’s why Ireland vs Hungary carries a bigger punch than your typical September fixture.
RUBEN INGA NUÑEZ
September 7, 2025 AT 18:35Great tactical breakdown on the Ferguson vs Orbán battle. Ireland's new direct style should exploit Hungary's high line, especially with Ogbene's pace. The set-piece angle for BTTS is spot-on-both teams have that aerial threat. Solid analysis for a tight qualifier.
Michelle Warren
September 13, 2025 AT 21:35Hungrary will win. basic stuff. no way ireland gets it done. their defense is weak. also typos in the article lol
Christopher Boles
September 20, 2025 AT 00:35Ireland's home edge plus Hallgrímsson's organized style should see them edge this. Ferguson's physicality will disrupt Hungary's backline, and the Aviva crowd can push them over the line. Trust the setup.
Crystal Novotny
September 26, 2025 AT 03:35Replies to 480: Oh honey, you're missing the cosmic alignment of this match. The stars are conspiring for Hungary's underdog victory. Ireland's recent draws scream fragility-history repeats itself in the most unexpected ways. You're not seeing the bigger picture.
Reagan Traphagen
October 2, 2025 AT 06:35Bookmakers are rigged to favor Ireland. This is a setup to get punters to bet on them. Hungary's away form is solid, but they're being underpriced. Watch for the match to be fixed in favor of a certain bookie. Classic scam.
mark sweeney
October 8, 2025 AT 09:35Hungary's Szoboszlai is a game-changer. They'll control possession better than Ireland, and Sallai's speed will exploit Manning's left flank. The 1-1 draw is too optimistic-Hungary wins 2-1. Rossi's system is too sharp for this Irish squad.
randy mcgrath
October 14, 2025 AT 12:35Replies to 481: You're right about Ferguson, but Ireland's midfield might get overrun. Hungary's compact shape neutralizes their direct play. If they score first, it's a tough game to come back from-like the 1989 qualifiers. Home advantage isn't enough against their system.
Frankie Mobley
October 20, 2025 AT 15:35Hungary's system is all about those wing-backs pushing high. Rossi's setup makes them dangerous on counters. Ireland needs to keep their full-backs tight to avoid being caught out like in the friendly. It's a tactical chess match, not a slugfest.
ashli john
October 26, 2025 AT 18:35For betting, I'd go Under 2.5 goals. Both teams are cautious in qualifiers, and the odds point to a low-scoring game. If Ireland's defense holds, it's 0-0 or 1-0. The draw-no-bet is safe if you're unsure-no need to overcomplicate it.
Kim Chase
November 1, 2025 AT 21:35I think it's a toss-up. Ireland has home support, but Hungary's resilience in away games is proven. Maybe it's a 1-1 like the prediction, but I'm not betting big on either side. It's a step-one game where one slip costs everything.
David Werner
November 8, 2025 AT 00:35The match is fixed. You know it's not random that Ireland's key players are injured. It's a setup for bookies to profit. Hungary will win 3-0, and the ref is in on it. Check the betting patterns-this is rigged from the start.
Paul KEIL
November 14, 2025 AT 03:35The odds skew toward Ireland, but the market is mispriced. Hungary's set-piece delivery and Szoboszlai's vision make them the clear value bet. Back them to win at 2.10 odds-this is a no-brainer for sharp punters.
Horace Wormely
November 20, 2025 AT 06:35The post states '2024/25 Nations League'-it should be '2024-2025' for formal consistency. Also, 'Aviva will be full' is redundant; 'packed' is more precise. Correcting minor errors for clarity.
christine mae cotejo
November 26, 2025 AT 09:35Set pieces will decide this. Hungary's Orbán and Szalai are aerial threats, but Ireland's Collins and O'Shea have the physicality to win headers. The corner kick from the left flank could be key for Ogbene's pace. I've seen Ireland score from a corner in 70% of their recent home games. Also, Hungary's high line makes them vulnerable to counters-Ferguson can exploit that. The midfield battle between Cullen and Szoboszlai will dictate tempo; if Ireland wins that, they control the game. If Hungary's wing-backs push high, it creates space for Ogbene to run into. The 2024 friendly showed Ireland's defensive improvements, but Hungary's transition speed remains a problem. I'm predicting a 1-1 draw with a goal from a corner in the 65th minute. Both teams to score is a solid bet because of the high stakes and aggressive tactics. The halftime score will likely be 0-0, setting up a tense second half. This isn't just a qualifier-it's a statement game for both teams' confidence. If Ireland scores first, they'll sit deep; if Hungary does, they'll absorb pressure. The referee's card discipline will matter too, as both teams play physical. I've analyzed 50 similar qualifiers, and the pattern shows 1-1 is most probable. So yeah, 1-1 is the way to go.
Douglas Gnesda
December 2, 2025 AT 12:35The BTTS angle is solid. Both teams have the attacking threat, and the odds confirm it. I'll be backing both teams to score at 2.00 odds-good value for a tight game. No need for fancy picks here.